Werewolf game thread

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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Alladin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:59 am

Considering I endorsed a mass claim Here's my own claim. I'm a day aligned Glutton, I can consume 5 of any combination of resources to survive a NK. you can check the flavor of some previous texts on day one to confirm this if you wish, I guess I also hinted at the cost of my power by trying the get people to answer this question
Alladin wrote:Basically for a benchmark I'd be willing to trade a large portion of our supplies for some hard information on any player and or another day to find said information... What does everyone else think about this, more information and more time is always helpful but how much is everyone willing to give up for these things?
 ... No one but Renesemee did Sad.

Last night someone tried to NK me and I consumed  2 food 2wood and 1 tool instead to survive, hence why I was asking about who else used a NK ability. Well I guess the wolves could have NK'd Renesmee and a town aligned or neutral player could have targeted me. Seeing as how Putin was super suspicious of Renesmee I assumed he was the one who NK'd her, however he seems unwilling to own up to it at this point which makes me wonder if it isn't him.

Pretty sure we're at LyL0 now so there's not too much point in hiding roles and extra information now, pretty sure we need to if not mass claim then at least pool our information and or opinions.  I was really hoping we could dodge a nightkill last night by me tanking it and then all wolfsbane today, however that's not really an option now considering I doubt they'll go after me twice and just one more kill puts us at 2:2 which is a loss (assuming 2 wolves). I'm hoping everyone will claim soon so that we can start working out who to lynch.

Suspicious list:
Pretty much everyone is the same for me at this point.
Luxray: is probably the most likely to be a wolf logically speaking based on actions and claims. However he also didn't fight very hard against his own lynch when it seemed inevitable, further solidifying my town read on him.
Putin: I'm leaning towards thinking you have a Vigilante type ability that allows you to NK, first night you obviously didn't as there wasn't enough info then second night you tried to get rid of Renesmee due to your scum read of her. You did claim to this and it was what I was thinking anyway, but without full role claim I don't know if I can trust you, having NK immunity and a kill, however situational seems ridiculously strong.
IceIceBaby: Probably the least likely to be a wolf logically speaking, has been very down key and reasonable in both his plays and his judgement on the game. That being said I feel like that is exactly how I would play the game if I were a said wolf, not making any bold plays and trying to shift attention away from me.
Fedora: Had a reserved day one but with good insights and no fear to vote for a lynch, then day two you did a full 360 and were clamoring for a Luxray lynch which was very. understandable all things considered. I don't really have a hard opinion on you as yet except that you're probably the most likely to be town and the least likely to be a Vigilante.

Leakycauldron wrote:Saul Goodman has died in the night. His body was found just outside his home, as if dragged from his bed. He will be missed.

Leakycauldron wrote:Renesmee has been found killed in her bed.

hadn't noticed this before but it's a nice pick up by ice, that being said Putin is probably right that it isn't enough to say definitely that Renesmee wasn't killed by wolves.

I forgot before so Cut Wood

EDIT: Putin posted before me, not too bad logically, once again I really think there isn't any point to not full claiming at this point, seeing if we don't hit a wolf with our lynch we lose.We actually have quite a lot of time till night 3 begins, 4IRL days to be more specific, so i don't think your vote of me is bad play really due to no one being able to hammer the wagons. I feel like having more people claim is really important at this point, Putin you were endorsing a mass claim yesterday, you've been quite active and you claimed responsibility for the NK so I'm looking at you to help me get the ball rolling.

Edit 2: Scum team's list:
Ice and Putin
Ice and Lux
Putin and Lux
Putin and Fedora

I really doubt that Fedora is teamed with Lux after going after his head so hard when at the time no one else was voting Lux. I could be wrong about this but for now my read is probably Ice and Putin or an Ice and Lux team as the most likely.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:11 pm

Aladdin wrote:Dat Post

Shit. I believe this claim.

Unvote

I'm not really sure what else you want me to claim? I'm a Town aligned Guard, by night I protect the town (apparently poorly) and if the wolves are scared off I get to strike some vigilante justice.


Given that you think it's Me/Ice or Lux/Ice I assume you'd be fine with an Ice Lynch today?
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:17 pm

Oh right, plus the whole "self defence skills" thing allowing me to fight off any wolf that tries to eat me.

Yeah, I know it's OP as hell. But in my defence, raising the god damn dead is pretty powerful too.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Alladin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:02 pm

Putin wrote:
Aladdin wrote:Dat Post

Shit. I believe this claim.

Unvote

I'm not really sure what else you want me to claim? I'm a Town aligned Guard, by night I protect the town (apparently poorly) and if the wolves are scared off I get to strike some vigilante justice.


Given that you think it's Me/Ice or Lux/Ice I assume you'd be fine with an Ice Lynch today?

Shit I believe this claim too Sad

Yeah I would be ok with an Ice lynch at this point, that being said I'm hoping we can get at least 4/5 claims today so we have more information to act with.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:13 pm

Alladin wrote:
Yeah I would be ok with an Ice lynch at this point, that being said I'm hoping we can get at least 4/5 claims today so we have more information to act with.

I agree with this premise. Massclaim time.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by FedoraNerd on Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:57 pm

Okay, interestingly I am a vanilla townie.

Yep, same as Luxray's claim. It might not be plausible, but there it is...

Now, we're at 5 players: Ice, Luxray, Putin, Alladin and myself. If there are two wolves then we are almost certainly at LyLo.

I'm (somewhat) convinced of Ice being town, and Alladin actually seems to be legit. That leaves Lux and Putin as my scum reads.

Putin, a NK-immune vigilante is hard to believe. Vanilla wolf would have the same demonstrated abilities. Lux is scummy as hell due to reasons I've already outlined.

Ultimately, all I can say is VOTE:LUXRAY, scum tie breaking is dangerous enough without a high ratio of scum/town.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by FedoraNerd on Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:59 pm

That said, I might be convinced to vote Ice if he doesn't get on very soon and defend himself.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Alladin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:20 pm

Just a quick recap of roles claimed and my two cents on the matter before I go to bed.
Luxray: VT
Fedora: VT
Putin: NK immunity and a NK if wolves don't manage to NK themselves
Me: conditional NK immunity
IceIce: Not claimed
Combined with the known roles:
Sauron: Martyr (Town)
Renesmee: Priest (Town)
Saul: Herbalist (Town)

Ok, just quickly before I start explaining I guess I should say this theory assumes that there are 2 wolves left alive, there have always been only 2 wolves and as such we are at LyL0. I also assumed that out of the 2 kill attempts in night 2, one was a town vigilante kill attempt.
Firstly to recap Obviously two people out of the current 5 alive have to be lying. The information we have that we know is certain is pretty limited, so far I'm the only one who claimed to have impacted the resources last night. I think the general opinion I'm getting from people is that they think I'm town, that being said assuming that the remaining players trust me then we know that there were 2 attempted NK's last night. Discounting the wolves NK and the two players that have claimed VT there are only 2 players that could have possibly made said kill at this point. Ie Putin and IceIceBaby. Putin claimed ownership of the NK and I feel that it was certainly in line with his agenda if he was the Vig, due to him be quite open with the fact he was highly suspicious of renesmee. Ice on the other hand put Renesmee at the bottom of his scum list, maybe he wasn't being 100% honest with his talk and actions in day 2... Maybe he was trying to set a trap for a wolf but I feel like it's highly unlikely that Ice is the Vig, he also had plenty of time to own up to the claim earlier today. He even agreed with my statement that Renesmee was likely not killed by wolves due to the flavor of the text.

In the end my reasoning with the current information I have access to, is that that IceIceBaby is probably the most likely to be a wolf. However this only works if Putin isn't his partner, which at this point seems highly likely due to Lux and Fedora both claiming VT and as such not having access to the NK.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by IceIceBaby on Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:55 pm

Ok claim time I guess. I've had a major problem with the amount of claimed NK immunity in this game as it seems unbalanced.

I have the role of Prostitute, each night I can elect to sleep in somebody else's bed, if I am targeted by the wolves that night I live, of the person I chose is targeted by the wolves that night we both die. I know this is a major double edged sword kind of role but it leads me to believe that.
1. Some people are lying about their roles or at least the NK immunity aspect of them
2. There os only 1 wolf, if the wolf has the chance to kill two players in the one night, I don't think we are at LyLo yet but I could very well be wrong.

If you want to know who I have slept with the answer is nobody, I've rather gone with the play nice with everybody tactic hoping power roles would pop up to hide behind and they did. If you want to know my wolf picks, if it hadn't been for his claim it would have been Putin, but you seem to check out, not that I'm overly trusting at the best of times but I do think your NK immunity is the bullshit claims the rest I believe though.
What Alladin claims makes sense given the roles we've had so far balancewise I think.

My scum picks are between the two Vanilla claims of I had to pick one I'd go with Fedora, I've voted for him consistently throughout the game whilst trying to also lie low, not pushing for a lynch but just having the vote there because situations like this are bound to arise where an overall plan needs to be laid bare.
Luxray I have always thought of as town, I'm not sure why but I've always gotten that vibe from him, even of he has done some stupid plays previously.

I'm going to Vote: Fedora to start off with
Job: Collect Wood
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:56 pm

OK, what do we know.

We know that someone ate our resources last night
We now have everyone's full claims.
So far, everyone except 2 people have claimed very conditional Power Roles

What do we individually know.
I know that last the wolves didn't target me, and failed to kill.
Aladdin knows that he was the target of a kill, and that he ate our resources to survive.

Now, in an 8 player game the idea of 1 full blown NK immunity and one very expensive one seems balanced to me.

Therefore I'm willing to accept that Aladdin's claim is genuine.

Aladdin, I hope, is willing to believe my claim, as the only person claiming to have a NK that isn't a wolf. (Btw, I hinted at my NK ages ago by saying that I was wolf proof, implying that a none wolf kill existed.)

Given what we know, how likely is it in a game full of weird and quirky situational Power Roles that we would have 2 VTs? Or for that matter. ANY VTs?

I think we've found our wolves guys.

Vote: Fedora

Lux, if you want any chance of convincing me otherwise, you better light that fire today.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Luxray on Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:14 am

Burn 2 wood

Vote:Fedora Purely on the basis of his pushing for me for one action. Then when answering his questions he still votes me. I know my role as vanilla town means i cant help the town much. But as mayor i believe i can do that.

Putin you mentioned two people picking bane and you can end this? How?
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:19 am

If we lynch a wolf today. And the town all picks wolfsbane I can NK the other Wolf because they'll have no target and auto fail the kill.

Assuming I can correctly identify the second wolf of course.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by IceIceBaby on Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:42 am

If you guess wrong we are pretty screwed though, plus wouldn't they just not attack? Doesn't your ability only work of they fail an attack? If I'm wrong then awesome and would everybody be willing to go with this plan?
Would you be willing to make the target of your NK open to a secondary vote by town today? I'm pretty much convinced by your claim but this would put the power ok a night kill in hands of the majority, who we still know are confirmed town by the fact we haven't lost yet. If we lose off that then that was our bad and it means if you are wolf by some slim chance then we control one wolf kill.
Or would people prefer to just leave it hope we lynch wolf tonight and go for the vote tomorrow instead?
Note: I'm still fairly convinced there is only a one wolf team, but that is just coming off the back of my role, I can see why there might be two given other confirmed roles but, if wolves got really lucky with lynches and kills early on I feel like the game would drastically sift in their balance for late game.
What do people think of this, I'm pretty sure you all know who I am by now, I'm probably the least experienced when it comes to balancing mafia but that's just my opinion, you all seem fairly convinced there are two though.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:04 pm

IceIceBaby wrote:If you guess wrong we are pretty screwed though, plus wouldn't they just not attack? Doesn't your ability only work of they fail an attack? If I'm wrong then awesome and would everybody be willing to go with this plan?
Nah, I get a kill if the wolves don't kill someone, for any reason.
IceIceBaby wrote:Would you be willing to make the target of your NK open to a  secondary vote by town today? I'm pretty much convinced by your claim but this would put the power ok a night kill in hands of the majority, who we still know are confirmed town by the fact we haven't lost yet. If we lose off that then that was our bad and it means if you are wolf by some slim chance then we control one wolf kill.
that's basically the plan yeah, though I'll in the end be making the final call I want the whole town to assist in determining who specifically to kill.
IceIceBaby wrote:Or would people prefer to just leave it hope we lynch wolf tonight and go for the vote tomorrow instead?
Changes nothing, just puts even more faith in me. if I kill wrong tonight we still lose, instead of losing today if we lynch wrong.
IceIceBaby wrote:Note: I'm still fairly convinced there is only a one wolf team, but that is just coming off the back of my role, I can see why there might be two given other confirmed roles but, if wolves got really lucky with lynches and kills early on I feel like the game would drastically  sift in their balance for late game.
A one wolf team with 8 players would be horribly imbalanced. Especially with a Town kill/plenty of good PRs. Generally speaking anyway if Town can win D1 through luck, you've fucked up. So there'd have to be a none wolf anti town faction for that to work out. I'd bet anything that there are 2 wolves alive right now.
IceIceBaby wrote:What do people think of this, I'm pretty sure you all know who I am by now, I'm probably the least experienced when it comes to balancing mafia but that's just my opinion, you all seem fairly convinced there are two though.
Would you believe I haven't actually figured you who you are? Well, now that you've said this I think I have.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:06 pm

IceIceBaby wrote:Note: I'm still fairly convinced there is only a one wolf team, but that is just coming off the back of my role.
Also, what specifically about your role leads you to believe that there'd only be a solo wolf?
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Alladin on Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:50 pm

Ok, I'm very sad Sad my wall of text post was just unable to post so I guess I'll sumerize it here.

Preface for this post, I'm assuming me and Putin are town based on the claims we've had so far and the night actions that have taken place this is the only possible solution unless someone is lying about not having a town NK ability... In which case town deserves to lose.

Re-read days 1-2 trying to find scum reads, didn't find much, my reads so far are.
Luxray: Town, newish play style that is improving makes him look wolfish, alternatively he could be a noobish wolf that is slowly learning to hide his tells better and better. VT claim is Ehhhh
IceIce: Probably has contributed the least to town decisions over the entirety of the game, day one was a bit of a mess so it's hard to tell but especially on day 2 he just kind of voted for Fedora and then me, due to not knowing who to vote for. This is understandable but I feel like if you wanted that information it would be better to try putting pressure on other players such as Putin/Luxray who were already under fire. That being said you had the most believable claim.
Fedora: I have no read whatsoever here, very passive day one which is bad for town. Then on day 2 he aggressively pursued Luxray, which was very understandable under the circumstances. VT claim is kinda Ehhhhh

In conclusion at this point I'm leaning towards Ice being most likely Scum based on play, but VT claims from both Fedora and Ice are suspicious. Basically I would think Ice+ Luxray or Fedora+ Luxray are the most likely scum teams. That being said Luxray is the one player I've had a town read on for a long time so I find it hard to rationalize how all the solutions I'm coming up with have him as a wolf. Ie circular logic is fun

In conclusion basically the game is at LyLo and if we manage to lynch a wolf (2/3 chance) we win. basically the game will unfold 2 different ways based on the lynch today, if we hit a townie we lose... plain and simple. However if we hit a wolf and then all wolfsbane tonight except Putin ofc then he can NK one of the other two players. If he NK's a wolf then thats great but if he doesn't that doesn't change anything. Because then on day 4 we have 2 town and a wolf left meaning that me and Putin can vote off the last wolf and win.

Pick Wolfsbane

I won't bother changing votes for now, seeing as there isn't much point until the deadline day now that we're done claiming roles and such. All that's left is to try and figure out if anyone dropped some reads in the previous days and seeing as Fedora is at 3votes right now anyway me adding another vote at this point doesn't really do anything until the day is drawing to a close.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:22 pm

Aladdin. Just keep in mind that at least one of those 3 votes is a wolf. If Lux is a wolf they could force a tie with anyone unless all 3 townies are involved. And yeah. Your sumary of tonight/tomorrow is exactly what we need. At this point either we lynch a wolf and town wins. Or we don't and town loses.

No pressure!
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by IceIceBaby on Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:24 pm

Well with my role if wolves get lucky they can get both a lynch and a double Nk right off the bat and if two of those were roles like Alladin or Renesmee then that would severely weaken the town? As I said, I'm not exactly a balance expert that's just what I was thinking but I guess you have a good point about a possible D1 win.

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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by IceIceBaby on Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:49 pm

Okay, just thinking right now that Renesnee could resurrect people so I am stupid. Yes okay, one wolf would not provide sufficient balance.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Alladin on Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:05 pm

I feel like you're really underselling your ability late game ice, I didn't get the PM so I obviously don't know the wording but once mass claims start if there's at least you and one other NK immune player then u can both be NK immune?!?! or would you still die if targeted?

Pretty sure you're a wolf anyway or at least there is a 2/3 chance of you being a wolf so yeah

Thinking about voting, I hadn't really thought of it that way but yeah the odds are still stacked against us, best option to combat this i think is to have everyone agreeing to vote for the same person come lynch time, that way at least 3 people will be voting for said person.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by IceIceBaby on Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:54 pm

That is true i was just thinking early game. Though I never really thought about it before if I slept with wolf I would be pretty much NK immune all the time. It doesn't state in my role that I couldn't do that.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by FedoraNerd on Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:12 am

I'm... no longer as certain as I was about Ice, but I'm still very much convinced of Luxray. Remember, his ability to shift votes away from the wolf makes things a lot worse.

I totally forgot my job... Well, at this point I'm more than likely going to get lunched, but even if I am then the wolves can NK me since I have no protections. I'm a vanilla townie and I'm ready to die for the town; the pity is I can only help by

JOB: FARM FOOD

Not that it helps, all the wolves need to do is promise to farm food and then swap jobs (again).
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by FedoraNerd on Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:13 am

Tell you what though, if my vote is the difference between condemning Ice and causing a tie, I'll change to voting Ice so Lux can't protect him.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by Putin on Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:03 am

@Fedora
We don't actually need food any more. One way or the other the game will be over by the time we run out. If you're really a townie then please switch to either wood or tools.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

Post by FedoraNerd on Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:23 am

Oh right, Alladin is picking bane and therefore won't raid the food for his gluttony powers.

JOB: Gather wood though I'm not sure even that will work. Tools at least we have enough of unless there's a power role that requires 5 to do an investigation or something.
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Re: Werewolf game thread

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